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This from PKC Monday 26th Feb

The general forecast for this week remains unchanged, with colder conditions and disruptive snow affecting many parts of the UK, particularly in eastern areas, during this week.

We are now looking at a period of significant disruption, particularly across the east on Wednesday, with the increasing potential for some widespread, disruptive snow amounts, blizzard conditions and drifting of powdery snow on strong easterly winds. Snowfalls of 20-30cm are possible in some eastern parts on Wednesday, but some areas will have much deeper snow lying due to the drifting, while other parts will have much less. The heavy snow showers will also extend westwards through the Central Belt on Wednesday and into Thursday.

With Yellow Warnings for Snow in place for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, an Amber Warning for Snow was issued yesterday for much of the Lothians & Borders (including through to Bathgate on the M8), Forth Valley, Fife, Tayside, Grampian and the north and east Highlands (excluding Inverness).

The frequency and intensity of the snow across the east of Scotland on Wednesday and into Thursday is starting to cause some concern, and the assessment of the warning will be changed from medium likelihood of medium impacts to medium likelihood of high impacts.

High level impacts for snow indicate that transport routes and travel service will be affected for a prolonged period, with long travel delays.

Large numbers of stranded vehicles and passengers, with widespread disruption to rail, road and air services. Widespread and prolonged interruptions to power and other utilities.

Rural communities cut off for a prolonged period due to deep snow or drifts. This will also be extended westwards to cover parts of Glasgow, Renfrewshire, Ayrshire and the Lanarkshires.

In addition, there is the potential for an Amber Warning for Snow to be issued for Thursday. This is due to the snow showers extending westwards through the Central Belt (including the Glasgow area) on Thursday.

It’s very important to note that snow amounts, and consequently impacts, will be very variable across Scotland due to the nature of showers. This week will be very cold and snow will build up in places during the week, with very limited (if any) thawing during the day. Temperatures will struggle to rise above 0C, with minimum temperatures of around -4C quite widely on Tuesday night and the likelihood of below -10C in Highland glens, and strong winds at times will make it feel bitterly cold. At this time of year, and with lambing getting underway, the cold temperatures and snow is also likely to have an impact on farming.

To the forecast, and some localised and light snow showers will affect parts of eastern Scotland today. From early on Tuesday, the snow showers will become more widespread across the east of Scotland, and will push through to western parts at times. There continues to be the potential for an area of persistent snow to clip southeast Scotland (mainly the Scottish Borders, and perhaps East Lothian) between around 0400 and 0800 on Tuesday morning. This will cause disruption on cross border road and rail routes tomorrow morning.

On Wednesday, and after a very cold night, frequent, heavy snow showers will continue to push across Scotland from the North Sea. This will be most frequent across the east with all areas likely to see snow amounts building up. The snow showers will continue on

Thursday, with the easterly wind pushing these westwards through the Central Belt.

On Friday, the snow showers will continue, but are forecast to be lighter and more scattered. However, there remains the potential for more persistent snow to spread from the south during the day.

Warnings for Scotland
These will be assessed and updated, as required, through this morning.
Tuesday
· The Yellow Warning for Snow on Tuesday covers all but the western coastal areas and the islands. This is valid from 0005 until 2355 on Tuesday, and is assessed as a low likelihood of medium impacts. The warning highlights the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

Wednesday
· An Amber Warning for Snow was issued yesterday for eastern Scotland on Wednesday. This was assessed as a medium likelihood of medium impact, but will be changed today to indicate a medium likelihood of high impacts. This is valid from 0400 until 2100 on Wednesday, and covers much of the Lothians & Borders (through to Bathgate on the M8), Forth Valley, Fife, Tayside, Grampian and the north and east Highlands (excluding Inverness).
· A Yellow Warning for Snow is in place for just about all of mainland Scotland (with only some western parts being left out). This valid from 0400 until 2100 on Wednesday, and is assessed as a low likelihood of medium impacts. This highlights the potential for snow amounts to be building in places through Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday
· A Yellow Warning for Snow was issued yesterday for parts of east, north and central Scotland on Thursday. This is assessed as a low likelihood of medium impacts, and is valid from 0005 until 2355.
· In addition, an Amber Warning for Snow for eastern parts and through the Central Belt is under consideration. This would be assessed as medium likelihood of medium impacts.

As usual the full details of the warnings can be found at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings
Some indication of the impacts which might be expected can be found at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/…/weather/severe-weather-advice

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